Family environmental unpredictability and adolescent physiological and psychological health: The buffering role of positive school climate

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1041.2026.1720

Abstract

Abstract:

Using a statistical-learning approach, the present study examined whether unpredictability in abuse and neglect differentially predicted adolescents’ diurnal cortisol rhythms and depressive symptoms, and whether a positive school climate moderated these associations. A total of 211 adolescents (T1: M_age = 10.82 years, SD = 0.85; 34.6% girls) participated in a four-wave longitudinal survey spanning two years. Unpredictability was operationalized as random variation across the same repeated measurements. Results indicated that unpredictability in abuse significantly predicted flatter diurnal cortisol slopes but not depressive symptoms. Abuse unpredictability also interacted with average abuse exposure: higher unpredictability was linked to fewer depressive symptoms when average exposure was high. Neglect unpredictability showed no significant associations with either cortisol rhythms or depressive symptoms. School safety and order moderated the link between abuse unpredictability and diurnal cortisol slopes, with significant effects emerging only under low school safety and order. Similarly, school support and acceptance moderated the association between neglect unpredictability and diurnal cortisol slopes. Findings suggest that abuse unpredictability has stronger implications for adolescent health than neglect unpredictability, and that a positive school climate may serve as a protective factor for adolescents experiencing adverse family contexts.

Key words: family environmental unpredictability, HPA axis, depressive symptoms, resilience factor, school climate

GAO Qianqian, CHEN Meijing, SUN Jianing, LI Yijia, WANG Wei, XIANG Shiyuan, XIE Mingjun, LIN Danhua. (2026). Family environmental unpredictability and adolescent physiological and psychological health: The buffering role of positive school climate. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 58(9), 1720-1735.

Figures/Tables 11

References 69

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Variable	Diurnal Cortisol Slope							Depressive Symptoms
Variable	β	B	SE	95% CI	t	ΔR²	f²	β	B	SE	95% CI	t	ΔR²	f²
Step1: Gender	?0.16^*	?0.01	0.003	[?0.152, ?0.001]	?2.06	0.076	0.084	0.16^*	0.19	0.082	[0.027, 0.351]	2.31	0.173	0.208
Age	?0.18^*	?0.01	0.002	[?0.009, ?0.001]	?2.39			0.13	0.09	0.047	[?0.005, 0.182]	1.87
Waking time	?0.11	?0.02	0.011	[?0.038, 0.006]	?1.36			—	—	—	—	—
Sampling location	?0.11	?0.01	0.007	[?0.023, 0.004]	?1.41			—	—	—	—	—
T1 Depressive symptoms	—	—	—	—	—			0.18^**	0.20	0.080	[0.040, 0.358]	2.48
Neglect unpredictability	?0.04	?0.00	0.009	[?0.021, 0.013]	?0.50			0.03	0.07	0.188	[?0.299, 0.445]	0.39
Mean abuse exposure	0.13	0.01	0.005	[?0.001, 0.019]	1.66			0.26^***	0.66	0.181	[0.299, 1.015]	3.63
School safety and order
Step2: Abuse unpredictability	0.43^**	0.05	0.018	[0.017, 0.088]	2.91	0.053^*	0.150	?0.18	?0.53	0.371	[?1.262, 0.203]	?1.43	0.078^***	0.333
Safety and order	?0.15	?0.01	0.006	[?0.020, 0.002]	?1.68			?0.34^***	?0.51	0.123	[?0.749, ?0.265]	?4.12
Step3: Abuse unpredictability × Safety and order	?0.20^*	?0.05	0.025	[?0.100, ?0.003]	?2.14	0.028^*	0.187	0.00	0.01	0.526	[?1.025, 1.050]	0.02	0.000	0.334
School acceptance and support
Step2: Abuse unpredictability	0.42^**	0.05	0.018	[0.016, 0.087]	2.85	0.047^*	0.142	?0.17	?0.50	0.378	[?1.241, 0.251]	?1.31	0.052^**	0.289
Acceptance and support	?0.11	?0.00	0.004	[?0.012, 0.002]	?1.33			?0.24^**	?0.27	0.084	[?0.439, ?0.104]	?3.20
Step3: Abuse unpredictability × Acceptance and support	?0.10	?0.03	0.019	[?0.064, 0.012]	?1.34	0.014	0.160	?0.07	?0.41	0.409	[?1.217, 0.396]	?1.00	0.004	0.296
School equality and fairness
Step2: Abuse unpredictability	0.42^**	0.05	0.018	[0.016, 0.087]	2.84	0.049^*	0.144	?0.17	?0.50	0.377	[?1.239, 0.248]	?1.31	0.057^**	0.297
Equality and fairness	?0.11	?0.00	0.003	[?0.011, 0.002]	?1.43			?0.25^***	?0.25	0.072	[?0.388, ?0.102]	?3.38
Step3: Abuse unpredictability × Equality and fairness	?0.00	?0.00	0.016	[?0.033, 0.031]	?0.07	0.003		?0.00	?0.02	0.349	[?0.705, 0.674]	?0.05	0.000	0.297
School autonomy and cooperation
Step2: Abuse unpredictability	0.40^**	0.05	0.018	[0.013, 0.085]	2.72	0.042^*	0.135	?0.19	?0.54	0.383	[?1.307, 0.212]	?1.42	0.028^*	0.250
Autonomy and cooperation	?0.07	?0.00	0.004	[?0.010, 0.004]	?0.85			?0.15^*	?0.17	0.080	[?0.323, ?0.007]	?2.06
Step3: Abuse unpredictability × Autonomy and cooperation	?0.03	?0.01	0.019	[?0.045, 0.031]	?0.37	0.005	0.141	0.02	0.14	0.413	[?0.674, 0.957]	0.34	0.000	0.251

Variable	Diurnal Cortisol Slope							Depressive Symptoms
Variable	β	B	SE	95% CI	t	ΔR²	f²	β	B	SE	95% CI	t	ΔR²	f²
Step1: Gender	?0.16^*	?0.01	0.003	[?0.152, ?0.001]	?2.06	0.076	0.084	0.16^*	0.19	0.082	[0.027, 0.351]	2.31	0.173	0.208
Age	?0.18^*	?0.01	0.002	[?0.009, ?0.001]	?2.39			0.13	0.09	0.047	[?0.005, 0.182]	1.87
Waking time	?0.11	?0.02	0.011	[?0.038, 0.006]	?1.36			—	—	—	—	—
Sampling location	?0.11	?0.01	0.007	[?0.023, 0.004]	?1.41			—	—	—	—	—
T1 Depressive symptoms	—	—	—	—	—			0.18^**	0.20	0.080	[0.040, 0.358]	2.48
Neglect unpredictability	?0.04	?0.00	0.009	[?0.021, 0.013]	?0.50			0.03	0.07	0.188	[?0.299, 0.445]	0.39
Mean abuse exposure	0.13	0.01	0.005	[?0.001, 0.019]	1.66			0.26^***	0.66	0.181	[0.299, 1.015]	3.63
School safety and order
Step2: Abuse unpredictability	0.43^**	0.05	0.018	[0.017, 0.088]	2.91	0.053^*	0.150	?0.18	?0.53	0.371	[?1.262, 0.203]	?1.43	0.078^***	0.333
Safety and order	?0.15	?0.01	0.006	[?0.020, 0.002]	?1.68			?0.34^***	?0.51	0.123	[?0.749, ?0.265]	?4.12
Step3: Abuse unpredictability × Safety and order	?0.20^*	?0.05	0.025	[?0.100, ?0.003]	?2.14	0.028^*	0.187	0.00	0.01	0.526	[?1.025, 1.050]	0.02	0.000	0.334
School acceptance and support
Step2: Abuse unpredictability	0.42^**	0.05	0.018	[0.016, 0.087]	2.85	0.047^*	0.142	?0.17	?0.50	0.378	[?1.241, 0.251]	?1.31	0.052^**	0.289
Acceptance and support	?0.11	?0.00	0.004	[?0.012, 0.002]	?1.33			?0.24^**	?0.27	0.084	[?0.439, ?0.104]	?3.20
Step3: Abuse unpredictability × Acceptance and support	?0.10	?0.03	0.019	[?0.064, 0.012]	?1.34	0.014	0.160	?0.07	?0.41	0.409	[?1.217, 0.396]	?1.00	0.004	0.296
School equality and fairness
Step2: Abuse unpredictability	0.42^**	0.05	0.018	[0.016, 0.087]	2.84	0.049^*	0.144	?0.17	?0.50	0.377	[?1.239, 0.248]	?1.31	0.057^**	0.297
Equality and fairness	?0.11	?0.00	0.003	[?0.011, 0.002]	?1.43			?0.25^***	?0.25	0.072	[?0.388, ?0.102]	?3.38
Step3: Abuse unpredictability × Equality and fairness	?0.00	?0.00	0.016	[?0.033, 0.031]	?0.07	0.003		?0.00	?0.02	0.349	[?0.705, 0.674]	?0.05	0.000	0.297
School autonomy and cooperation
Step2: Abuse unpredictability	0.40^**	0.05	0.018	[0.013, 0.085]	2.72	0.042^*	0.135	?0.19	?0.54	0.383	[?1.307, 0.212]	?1.42	0.028^*	0.250
Autonomy and cooperation	?0.07	?0.00	0.004	[?0.010, 0.004]	?0.85			?0.15^*	?0.17	0.080	[?0.323, ?0.007]	?2.06
Step3: Abuse unpredictability × Autonomy and cooperation	?0.03	?0.01	0.019	[?0.045, 0.031]	?0.37	0.005	0.141	0.02	0.14	0.413	[?0.674, 0.957]	0.34	0.000	0.251

Variable	Diurnal Cortisol Slope							Depressive Symptoms
Variable	β	B	SE	95% CI	t	ΔR²	f²	β	B	SE	95% CI	t	ΔR²	f²
Step1: Gender	?0.16^*	?0.01	0.004	[?0.016, ?0.000]	?1.98	0.106	0.118	0.17^*	0.20	0.083	[0.039, 0.367]	2.44	0.147	0.172
Age	?0.15	?0.00	0.002	[?0.009, 0.000]	?1.91			0.10	0.07	0.047	[?0.021, 0.167]	1.54
Waking time	?0.08	?0.01	0.013	[?0.010, 0.012]	?1.08			—	—	—	—	—
Sampling location	?0.04	?0.01	0.009	[?0.024, 0.014]	?0.55			—	—	—	—	—
T1 Depressive symptoms	—	—	—	—	—			0.22^**	0.25	0.079	[0.089, 0.403]	3.09
Abuse unpredictability	0.23^**	0.03	0.011	[0.008, 0.051]	2.76			0.13	0.38	0.217	[?0.046, 0.808]	1.76
Mean neglect exposure	0.02	0.00	0.005	[?0.008, 0.010]	0.20			0.10	0.10	0.073	[?0.042, 0.244]	1.39
School safety and order
Step2: Neglect unpredictability	?0.06	?0.01	0.010	[?0.028, 0.013]	?0.73	0.007	0.127	?0.01	?0.04	0.198	[?0.427, 0.356]	?0.18	0.091^***	0.313
Safety and order	?0.07	?0.00	0.006	[?0.016, 0.007]	?0.75			?0.37^***	?0.56	0.119	[?0.799, ?0.328]	?4.72
Step3: Neglect unpredictability × Safety and order	?0.14	?0.05	0.024	[?0.092, 0.003]	?1.84	0.020	0.153	?0.04	?0.31	0.498	[?1.291, 0.675]	?0.62	0.002	0.315
School acceptance and support
Step2: Neglect unpredictability	?0.07	?0.01	0.010	[?0.028, 0.013]	?0.74	0.006	0.126	?0.02	?0.04	0.203	[?0.446, 0.357]	?0.22	0.050^**	0.245
Acceptance and support	?0.05	?0.00	0.004	[?0.011, 0.006]	?0.58			?0.29^***	?0.33	0.096	[?0.518, ?0.138]	?3.40
Step3: Neglect unpredictability × Acceptance and support	?0.21^**	?0.04	0.017	[?0.079, ?0.011]	?2.62	0.040^**	0.178	0.12	0.64	0.354	[?0.061, 1.337]	1.80	0.014	0.267
School equality and fairness
Step2: Neglect unpredictability	?0.06	?0.01	0.010	[?0.027, 0.013]	?0.71	0.010	0.132	?0.01	?0.04	0.203	[?0.442, 0.360]	?0.20	0.053^**	0.249
Equality and fairness	?0.10	?0.00	0.004	[?0.012, 0.003]	?1.09			?0.29^***	?0.29	0.082	[?0.518, ?0.138]	?3.49
Step3: Neglect unpredictability × Equality and fairness	?0.15	?0.03	0.017	[?0.067, 0.001]	?1.89	0.021	0.159	0.13	0.63	0.329	[?0.018, 1.281]	1.92	0.016	0.274
School autonomy and cooperation
Step2: Neglect unpredictability	?0.07	?0.01	0.010	[?0.028, 0.012]	?0.78	0.005	0.125	?0.03	?0.07	0.207	[?0.483, 0.336]	?0.35	0.018	0.198
Autonomy and cooperation	?0.05	?0.00	0.004	[?0.011, 0.006]	?0.52			?0.17^*	?0.19	0.094	[?0.373, ?0.001]	?1.99
Step3: Neglect unpredictability × Autonomy and cooperation	?0.13	?0.03	0.019	[?0.068, 0.007]	?1.61	0.015	0.145	0.13	0.71	0.372	[?0.022, 1.745]	1.91	0.016	0.221

Variable	Diurnal Cortisol Slope							Depressive Symptoms
Variable	β	B	SE	95% CI	t	ΔR²	f²	β	B	SE	95% CI	t	ΔR²	f²
Step1: Gender	?0.16^*	?0.01	0.004	[?0.016, ?0.000]	?1.98	0.106	0.118	0.17^*	0.20	0.083	[0.039, 0.367]	2.44	0.147	0.172
Age	?0.15	?0.00	0.002	[?0.009, 0.000]	?1.91			0.10	0.07	0.047	[?0.021, 0.167]	1.54
Waking time	?0.08	?0.01	0.013	[?0.010, 0.012]	?1.08			—	—	—	—	—
Sampling location	?0.04	?0.01	0.009	[?0.024, 0.014]	?0.55			—	—	—	—	—
T1 Depressive symptoms	—	—	—	—	—			0.22^**	0.25	0.079	[0.089, 0.403]	3.09
Abuse unpredictability	0.23^**	0.03	0.011	[0.008, 0.051]	2.76			0.13	0.38	0.217	[?0.046, 0.808]	1.76
Mean neglect exposure	0.02	0.00	0.005	[?0.008, 0.010]	0.20			0.10	0.10	0.073	[?0.042, 0.244]	1.39
School safety and order
Step2: Neglect unpredictability	?0.06	?0.01	0.010	[?0.028, 0.013]	?0.73	0.007	0.127	?0.01	?0.04	0.198	[?0.427, 0.356]	?0.18	0.091^***	0.313
Safety and order	?0.07	?0.00	0.006	[?0.016, 0.007]	?0.75			?0.37^***	?0.56	0.119	[?0.799, ?0.328]	?4.72
Step3: Neglect unpredictability × Safety and order	?0.14	?0.05	0.024	[?0.092, 0.003]	?1.84	0.020	0.153	?0.04	?0.31	0.498	[?1.291, 0.675]	?0.62	0.002	0.315
School acceptance and support
Step2: Neglect unpredictability	?0.07	?0.01	0.010	[?0.028, 0.013]	?0.74	0.006	0.126	?0.02	?0.04	0.203	[?0.446, 0.357]	?0.22	0.050^**	0.245
Acceptance and support	?0.05	?0.00	0.004	[?0.011, 0.006]	?0.58			?0.29^***	?0.33	0.096	[?0.518, ?0.138]	?3.40
Step3: Neglect unpredictability × Acceptance and support	?0.21^**	?0.04	0.017	[?0.079, ?0.011]	?2.62	0.040^**	0.178	0.12	0.64	0.354	[?0.061, 1.337]	1.80	0.014	0.267
School equality and fairness
Step2: Neglect unpredictability	?0.06	?0.01	0.010	[?0.027, 0.013]	?0.71	0.010	0.132	?0.01	?0.04	0.203	[?0.442, 0.360]	?0.20	0.053^**	0.249
Equality and fairness	?0.10	?0.00	0.004	[?0.012, 0.003]	?1.09			?0.29^***	?0.29	0.082	[?0.518, ?0.138]	?3.49
Step3: Neglect unpredictability × Equality and fairness	?0.15	?0.03	0.017	[?0.067, 0.001]	?1.89	0.021	0.159	0.13	0.63	0.329	[?0.018, 1.281]	1.92	0.016	0.274
School autonomy and cooperation
Step2: Neglect unpredictability	?0.07	?0.01	0.010	[?0.028, 0.012]	?0.78	0.005	0.125	?0.03	?0.07	0.207	[?0.483, 0.336]	?0.35	0.018	0.198
Autonomy and cooperation	?0.05	?0.00	0.004	[?0.011, 0.006]	?0.52			?0.17^*	?0.19	0.094	[?0.373, ?0.001]	?1.99
Step3: Neglect unpredictability × Autonomy and cooperation	?0.13	?0.03	0.019	[?0.068, 0.007]	?1.61	0.015	0.145	0.13	0.71	0.372	[?0.022, 1.745]	1.91	0.016	0.221

Variable	M	SD	Min	Max
T1 Abuse	1.44	0.64	1.00	4.20
T2 Abuse	1.22	0.34	1.00	3.00
T3 Abuse	1.31	0.52	1.00	3.60
T4 Abuse	1.27	0.41	1.00	3.10
T1 Neglect	2.08	0.73	1.00	4.20
T2 Neglect	2.12	0.76	1.00	4.00
T3 Neglect	2.09	0.81	1.00	4.40
T4 Neglect	2.05	0.78	1.00	3.80